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Development Theory 2nd Edition, Jan Nederveen Pieterse

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Progress in Development Studies
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The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination

Prabirjit Sarkar

Rabindra Bharati University, Calcutta, India, Prabirjit{at}yahoo.com, Prabirjitsarkar{at}hotmail.com

Contrary to the classical proposition, the works of Prebisch and Singer launched the controversial hypothesis of long-term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis-à-vis manufactures and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of the South vis-à-vis the North. The present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate. It concludes that the empirical base of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is much stronger than it appeared in earlier decades. Reviewing some of the North-South models, the study also finds theoretical support for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

Key Words: commodity prices • North-South trade • Prebisch-Singer hypothesis • terms of trade • unequal exchange • uneven development

Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 1, No. 4, 309-327 (2001)
DOI: 10.1177/146499340100100403
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